The Reasons Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned The Magpies into Championship Contenders
The Newcastle manager is not prone to dramatics or sweeping media pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a furious outburst. His side scored first but West Ham were ahead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.
“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think this indicated of our performance level at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. In fact, I cannot recall having done so since I’ve been head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad required some shaking up at half-time. This explains why I made those decisions.”
Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at the interval and Newcastle managed to steady to an extent in the latter period, without ever appearing like they might get back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine fixtures. Given how packed the centre of the standings is, with just three points dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from ten matches has not left Newcastle adrift but, equally, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.
The Problem of Expectations
The challenge partially is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, the club possess the richest backers in the world. The expectation at the time the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the club in recent years was that it would bring a transformative effect, similar to Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or the City Group did at the Etihad. The distinction is that both of those investors took over before the advent of financial fair play regulations (while the ongoing charges against City relate to if they violated those guidelines once they were implemented).
Financial restrictions limit the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their teams and so in that sense probably might have slowed any Saudi attempt to raise Newcastle to the level of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they might have spent more and remained within the limit – or just accepted a relatively meagre European fine since their major issue is primarily with the European than the domestic regulation.
Stadium Investment and PSR Regulations
Besides which, stadium development is exempted from PSR calculations; the simplest way to raise income to create more financial headroom would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Given the location of the home ground, with listed buildings on two sides, in reality that likely implies constructing an entirely new venue. There was talk in spring of potentially making the short move to Leazes Park – resistance from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to create a new park on the existing ground location – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has been substantial cutbacks from the PIF on a variety of projects as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to Newcastle seems entirely in alignment with that strategic shift.
The Alexander Isak Situation
The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A more confident management might have framed his sale as essential to release funds for further investment; instead there was a unsuccessful effort to keep him. That meant the team started the campaign amid a sense of disappointment despite the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The start was mixed: one win in their first six fixtures.
But it appeared a corner had been turned. They secured five victories in six matches before the weekend, a run that featured demolitions of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the performance against West Ham was such a shock. The issue perhaps is that the team's style is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in intensity can have significant effects. Perhaps the strain of domestic, European and cup competition, five games in 15 days, had got to them. The German forward featured in all five games and appeared especially weary.
Reality of Modern Football
That’s the nature of today's football. Coaches have to be ready to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that the forward's fitness issue has left him lacking forward choices but, regardless of how valid the explanations, the weekend's performance was inexcusable –especially after taking the lead at a ground ready to turn on its home team.
Howe will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when everybody is off-colour at once, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the European competition in the future, let alone one day launch an actual title challenge, they must not be as inconsistent as this.