How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.